The Consequences and Implications of the Israel-Iran War
Israel-Iran War: Since the Israeli attack on the [building adjacent to the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran] in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of several officers and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, Tehran has threatened with significant retaliation, and Washington has declared it will defend Israel if conflict arises.
Now the troubling question arises: will the Islamic Republic and Israel engage in war? If the war spirals out of control and the US gets involved, what will happen? Will it be the war that ends conflicts? Or will it create a widespread disaster and bring everything to ruin?
Before discussing the possibility of war, it must be noted that these three countries (the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, and the US) have shown over the past 40 years that they manage conflicts and tensions in a way that keeps them at lower levels and prevents direct confrontation.
Israel regards the attack by Hamas as Iran’s doing. Therefore, according to Israel, killing Revolutionary Guards commanders is a response to Hamas’s attack within the framework of “rules of engagement.”
Today, for various reasons, direct confrontation cannot be ruled out, especially since the Islamic Republic has accelerated its geographical expansion and extended its sphere of influence into the territories of four surrounding countries of Israel. Additionally, the Houthis in Yemen have become part of the equation. The Islamic Republic controls two fronts of the war while its proxy forces in the region, especially in Iraq, have doubled, it has increased Hezbollah’s arsenal, and most importantly, Tehran is striving to acquire nuclear military capabilities.
In Israel’s view, Hamas’s attack on October 7th showcased Iran’s regional disruptive capabilities. This display, in addition to the threat of drones and ballistic missiles, which threaten the balance of power, unveiled a new danger that increases the likelihood of war.
In any war, victory is not predictable. However, many military experts believe that Israel holds a military superiority and could inflict significant damage on Iran with a short-term war, but it cannot emerge victorious alone from the battlefield confrontation. While the United States, the world’s preeminent military power, can initiate a long-term war considering the domestic front situation, cooperation of surrounding countries, political calculations of the Islamic Republic, and positions of other powerful countries, and break the military power of the Iranian regime.
We all remember that in March 2003, the US toppled the Iraqi regime in just two weeks, a regime that, besides its strict political and military system, had the strongest military force in the region, and its experienced army was unparalleled among regional armies.
The Iranian regime, with a better understanding of strategic issues and risk calculations and to avoid direct engagement, endures many damages and challenges. However, these characteristics do not negate the occurrence of a devastating conflict known as “Judgment Day War,” especially if the Islamic Republic continues its expansionist approach, which threatens the balance of power up to the Bab-el-Mandeb and destabilizes Jordan.
Moreover, considering strategic determinative decisions, it can be said that the occurrence of a conflict due to mistake or intentionally is not unlikely. For example, if Israel decides to eliminate Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic is likely to intervene, and Hezbollah will not be left alone on the battlefield like Hamas. Therefore, Hezbollah’s abstention from a similar response to Israel indicates this reality. In my opinion, Hezbollah seeks to preserve its significant military capabilities as part of a deterrent policy to protect the Iranian regime, and if the Islamic Republic and Israel ever engage in war, it will rain missiles on Israeli cities using these capabilities and inflict significant damage on that country.
Current and past attacks by Hezbollah on Israel have not exceeded the framework of the rules of engagement, but the October 7th attack by Hamas was a different invasion. Therefore, Hezbollah does not engage in such an attack because going in that direction increases the risk of Tehran and Tel Aviv going to war or at least Israel attacking Hezbollah with the aim of destroying it.
Therefore, it is unlikely that Israel seeks to initiate direct confrontation with Iran, as such a war would be costly and highly dangerous. However, the Israeli government is prepared to confront Hezbollah and may be inclined to initiate a broad war against Hezbollah, especially with the extensive public support it gained following Hamas’s October 7th attack. Although the attack by Hamas, which Tel Aviv considers a threat to its existence, has not been faced since the 1973 war, it has led the Israeli people to support Tel Aviv’s position for continuing the war in Gaza despite heavy losses incurred from the war.
Although currently neither party desires direct confrontation, the consequences of the Gaza war continue, and the grounds for expanding the scope of confrontations unprecedentedly are being prepared.
