The last American troops withdrew from their bases in Iraq on Wednesday, September 30, ending a 23-year military presence. The move has fueled concerns about a potential security vacuum, the rising influence of Iran-backed Shia militias, and an opportunity for ISIS to regroup.
The withdrawal is based on an agreement reached in 2024 under President Joe Biden's administration and is now being implemented by the Donald Trump administration, which is simultaneously engaged in a conflict with Iran. Tehran and its allies in Iraq are celebrating the departure as a significant "victory."
The U.S. military presence in Iraq began in 2003 with the U.S.-led coalition invasion that overthrew Saddam Hussein. Over the past two decades, more than 4,500 American service members were killed in the country, while the Iranian government steadily expanded its influence through proxy forces.
According to Reuters, analysts fear that Iraqi security forces, despite receiving training and financial support from Washington, may still be unable to fully secure their country. With the American withdrawal, this responsibility falls entirely on Iraqi forces, who face numerous challenges, including corruption and sectarian divisions.
Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst and advisor to the security forces, warned, "The lesson we've learned from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be very dangerous." There is a significant worry that groups like ISIS could exploit the situation to rebuild their networks and launch new attacks.
At the same time, the U.S. departure could empower Shia militias backed by Iran, granting them greater sway in Iraq's political and military landscape. These groups, which are also part of Iraq's official security apparatus, have long demanded the full exit of foreign forces and now see their position strengthened.
This development unfolds amid high tensions between the United States and Iran in the region. The withdrawal from Iraq could alter the strategic calculations for both sides and impact the balance of power throughout the Middle East.
Source: Reuters
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